Formula 1, Austin 2026: Antonelli could be champion on Sunday – the points maths and Friday practice
340, 238, 229 points. Six races and 150 points left. Antonelli is champion in Austin if he wins, Russell finishes ninth or lower and Hamilton fifth or lower. The numbers, the practice sessions and the records – with sources.
The 2026 Formula 1 world championship could be decided in the United States. Before the United States Grand Prix at the Circuit of the Americas in Austin, Kimi Antonelli leads by 102 points.
This article was written after Friday practice and before qualifying. It does not predict a result: it sets out which finishing positions would settle the title.
| Fact sheet | |
|---|---|
| Event | United States Grand Prix, Circuit of the Americas, Austin |
| Race | Sunday 25 October 2026 |
| Sprint | none (nor at the remaining rounds) |
| Grands Prix left | 6 including Austin, 150 points in total |
| 1. Antonelli (Mercedes) | 340 points |
| 2. Russell (Mercedes) | 238 points |
| 3. Hamilton (Ferrari) | 229 points |
Source: Auto Action, 20 Oct, standings after the Singapore race (11 Oct).
The standings
According to Auto Action, this is the top of the table after the Singapore Grand Prix:
| Position | Driver | Points | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kimi Antonelli | 340 | – |
| 2 | George Russell | 238 | 102 |
| 3 | Lewis Hamilton | 229 | 111 |
| 4 | Max Verstappen | 221 | 119 |
| 5 | Charles Leclerc | 215 | 125 |
| 6 | Lando Norris | 201 | 139 |
Source: Auto Action.
In theory six drivers are still in contention. A win is worth 25 points; over six races that is 150.
When Antonelli becomes champion on Sunday
According to the source, Antonelli can only clinch the title in Austin by winning, and even then only if:
- Russell finishes ninth or lower, and
- Hamilton finishes fifth or lower.
If Antonelli wins but Russell is eighth or Hamilton fourth, the championship stays open. If Antonelli does not win, the decision moves to Mexico City or later.
Why these limits? A win would take Antonelli to 365 points, with 125 points left to play for. Hamilton in fifth (10 points) would be on 239, 126 behind – a gap he could no longer close. In fourth (12 points) he would be on 241, 124 behind, and still mathematically alive. This is simple addition from the source's points.
What Friday practice showed
Charles Leclerc (Ferrari) topped both Friday sessions.
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Practice 1 | Leclerc 1:36.052 | Verstappen +0.084 | Norris +0.245 |
| Practice 2 | Leclerc 1:35.291 | Antonelli +0.042 | Verstappen +0.189 |
Sources: Formula1.com, FP1, Formula1.com, FP2.
In FP1 Verstappen's fastest lap was deleted for track limits at Turn 19, leaving him second. In FP2 Russell was investigated for forcing Leclerc off the track; the stewards took no further action. Antonelli complained about his seat and had a lap deleted for track limits. Friday times are not results: teams run different tyres and fuel loads.
The records that could fall
- The youngest champion. Antonelli turned 20 on 25 August. According to the source, a title would beat Sebastian Vettel's 2010 record (23 years, 133 days).
- An Italian champion after 73 years. The last Italian drivers' champion was Alberto Ascari, in 1953.
- Eight wins. According to the source, Antonelli has won eight Grands Prix this season, Russell three.
5 things many people don't know
- There are no sprints left. According to Auto Action, neither Austin nor the five races after it has one; Antonelli has scored 31 sprint points this year.
- 2026 brought new cars. The rule change removed the MGU-H from the power unit, and active aerodynamics replaced DRS.
- Two new teams arrived. Audi (formerly Sauber) and Cadillac joined in 2026.
- Two races were dropped. The Bahrain and Saudi Arabian Grands Prix were cancelled this season.
- Track limits cost a lot of laps here. On Friday Verstappen, Hadjar, Lawson, Hamilton and Antonelli all lost lap times for it.
What comes after Austin
According to Auto Action, five Grands Prix follow Austin: Mexico City, São Paulo, Las Vegas, Qatar and Abu Dhabi, worth 125 points in total. Next up is the Mexico City Grand Prix: according to the official timetable, it starts on Friday 30 October, with the race on Sunday 1 November over 71 laps of the 4.304 km Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez. If the title is not settled in Texas, that is the next chance.
What we do not know yet
Qualifying starts on Saturday at 16:00 local time and the race is on Sunday. Neither result was known when this article was written.
Summary
- Antonelli has 340, Russell 238, Hamilton 229 points.
- Six races and 150 points remain, with no sprints.
- In Austin the title needs: Antonelli wins, Russell 9th or lower, Hamilton 5th or lower.
- On Friday Leclerc was fastest in both sessions.
Related reading: Blog archive.
Educational content. This article is not betting advice and does not predict a result. Data Analytic Investments is not affiliated with Formula One Group, the FIA, any team or the portals cited; team and brand names are used for identification only. Images labelled "AI illustration" are not photographs.
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